Thursday, October 9, 2008

Philosopher's Picks: Week 7

The picks for Week 7 go as follows. Due to the boss lady going all S&M this week, there wasn't much research. I will go the Bush route and use gut feeling, we'll see how that works. Fingers crossed...

Thursday, October 9
7:30 PM ET ESPN Clemson (3-2, 1-1) @ #25 Wake Forest (3-1, 1-0) -2.5. Both these teams are meh after being heralded as the best of the ACC. Perhaps "meh" is the best of the ACC? On pure betting trends, Clemson is the right choice here. The underdogs have been killing it on Thursday night. Pitt, Oregon State (X2) and UConn have done it in the past two weeks. I will not buck the trend this week. Clemson 26-21. Confidence 10.

Saturday, October 11
12:00 PM ET ABC #5 Texas (5-0, 1-0), #1 Oklahoma (5-0, 1-0) -7 @Dallas, TX. Red River Rivalry! This is always one of the most intriguing games of the year and is undoubtedly the highest profile game on the slate this week (LSU-Florida is #2). Unlike Unquel Klem and Wack Forest, the Sooners and Horns have been smacking around the local baptist schools like red headed step children. Texas' one glaring weakness is their secondary (90ish ranked pass defense), but the offense can score. Oklahoma is just plain sick all around. I look for them to exploit the UT secondary to win, but not cover. Oklahoma 35, Texas 32. Confidence 7.

12:00 PM ET Big Ten Network Toledo (1-4, 1-1) @Michigan (2-3, 1-1) -16.5. Yeesh, here we go again. Toledo is flatout horrible and so is Michigan. Look for Michigan's offense to show a pulse this game and Toledo's inferior atheletes to make it easy on the Michigan defense. Michigan 45, Toledo 20. Confidence 13.

12:30 PM ET ESPN2 Colorado (3-2, 0-1) @ #16 Kansas (4-1, 1-0) -14. Colorado has not shown that it can stop any offense with a pulse. Kansas' offense has a strong pulse and a little moxy after a huge comeback at Iowa State. Kansas rips 'em. KU 49 - CU 28. Confidence 4.

12:30 PM ET GP South Carolina (4-2, 1-2) @Kentucky (4-1, 0-1) PK. Kentucky surprised me with a narrow loss at Alabama last week and USCe has been disappointing this season. There is really no reason to pick USCe - it's a road game in the SEC. UK, close. UK 21- USCe 20. Confidence 5.
3:00 PM ET Nebraska (3-2, 0-1) @ #7 Texas Tech (5-0, 1-0) -21. Holy frozen tortillas! This does not look good for Nebraska's porous defense. TT, yar yar, doesn't have much D itself. Bet the over and take Nebraska (barely). TT 55, Nebraska 45! Confidence 8.
3:30 PM ET CBS Tennessee (2-3, 0-2) @ #11 Georgia (4-1, 1-1) -13. I rarely trust a big line in the SEC. This will be one of those time that I do. Georgia has got to be pissed about the 31-point half against Alabama. Tennessee is not very good. Georgia 38, Tennasty 17. Confidence 3.

3:30 PM ET ESPN2 #23 Michigan State (5-1, 2-0) -2.5 @Northwestern (5-0, 1-0). Little Bro is bringing 2 and a hook to NU. Michigan State is seeing the benefits of an easy early big ten season schedule with a couple close wins. NU is coming off a bye week after beating Iowa by 5 on the road. MSU didn't cover against the Hawkeyes last week, thus sending me to Edward 40s hands pain. MSU is too strong for NU and I look for them to cover, closely. MSU 20-17. Confidence 11.

3:30 PM ET ABC-R Notre Dame (4-1, 0-0) @ #22 North Carolina (4-1, 1-1) -7. Luckily for the Irish, this is not a night game. At this point UNC brings too much speed and looks to be a year ahead of ND on the rebuild. UNC for the cover. UNC 27-17. Confidence 9.

5:00 PM ET Arizona (5-1, 2-0)-6.5 @ Stanford (3-3, 2-1). Where the hell did 'Zona come from? Stanford kept it fairly close at ND last week, taking the spread by a hook. But, that was more due to ND's lack of aggression in the second half. Stoops looks to become bowl eligible with a cover. Arizona 34, Stanford 21. Confidence 6.

8:00 PM ET CBS #3 LSU (4-0, 2-0) @# 12 Florida (4-1, 2-1) -5.5. This line is too big for this game. LSU to cover and win. LSU 26, UF 21. Confidence 2.

8:00 PM ET ESPN2 #21 Oklahoma State (5-0, 1-0) @ #4 Missouri (5-0, 1-0) -13.5. Lock Mizzou, it's a good thing to dou. The Boys have played nobody this season and looked good doing it. Mizzou swarmed Nebraska in Lincoln and opened by trouncing Illinois. Mizzou 56, OSU 21. Confidence 1. Lock

8:00 PM ET ABC-R #6 Penn State (6-0, 2-0) -5 @ Wisconsin (3-2, 0-2). Tough luck for the Badgers - starting the season with Michigan, Ohio Snake and State Penn. Things look bad in Badgerville. PSU runs a potent offense that is similar to OSU's but with seniors and juniors in the place of freshmen and sophomores. Wisconsin will show some pride and cover. Possibly win, but I won't go that far. PSU 31 - Wisconsin 27. Confidence 12.


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