Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Pick/ Counter Pick: Week 13 - Wednesday Game

Such a pleasant mountain, isn't it?

#17 Testicle Tech (10-0, 6-0) -7 @El Centro (8-2, 6-0)

Hemlock Philosopher: I love football on a Wednesday night. Central Michigan has posted a 71.3% Winning percentage at home and is getting 7 points. Why? Well, the have a suspect pass D facing perhaps the best pure passer outside of the Big 12, that's why. The Wx forecast calls for some snow, but it is supposed to be light and therefore not a threat to the dynamics of the game. As for the game, I look for CMU to hang tight on the legs of Dan LeFevour and a stable of backs while getting some production out of an experienced D-Line. Ball's taste by a FG. 28-25.

MGoBastard: MT. Pleasant on a cold late autumn night, does it get any better? Not on the football field (that is if you're a MAC fan). The two remaining undefeateds in the conference square off for an opportunity to go to the MAC championship game and on to some crappy bowl in the Mississippi Delta - or is it detroilet? At any rate, Testicle Tech has been been leaving balls taste in all their opponents and CMU has not. That's why they're getting 7. Since it is not a Thursday night, I cannot lock down on the home dog. CMU is a respectable team, but their D will fail them in a reverse of the Muncie Massacre, Tech big in a fun one 52-30.

Friday, November 14, 2008

Pick/ Counter Pick: Week 12 - Saturday Games

Miami went up early, did some lines, forgot to cover theirs... On to Sabado Gigante!

Wet Trud (7-3, 3-3) @ Michigan (3-7, 2-4) -3.5.

MGoBastard: When was the last time that a 3-7 team held 3.5 pts on a conference foe with the inverse record? Well, that shows some serious disrespect for the mild cats on the part of Vegas. Is this lack of respect deserved? After the 35 pt drubbing at the hands of satan's little helpers and the loss of so many players, that the coach had to keep an eye on the IM tournament for a starting QB, the answer is yes. Michigan played lights out last week, drubbing some rodents, giving the Maize and Blue faithful a glimmer of hope in this otherwise lost season and most importantly, giving the team a boost of confidence. While Michigan thoroughly outmans NW, this has still been and up and down season for us. The seniors come out a play spirited on their day, just enough to get over the freshmen's drops and fumbles. M 27, NW 16. Confidence 7.

Hemlock Philosopher: Heavy rain and 43 degrees in the forcast. I remember the ND fiasco and I am not quite sold that Meechigan is coming back. Sheridan is starting, combined with the weather makes me nervous about the hook. Michigan wins, closely, NW covers. 10-7. Confidence 13.

Numb and Dumb (5-4) -3.5 @ Yvan Eht Nioj (6-3).

MGoBastard: Another game where the no-name opponent gets very little respect from Vegas. This time it's a bit unfounded though. Navy has done a great job after losing their coach to GT with loses only to undefeated Ball State, stinky pinky Duke and mercurial Pitt. Notre Dame has suffered of late on Offense and are regressing to last year with fat chuckles making the calls this week. They might score, just not enough to cover… or win. Navy 21, ND 17. Confidence 8.

Hemlock Philosopher: It's amazing that after snapping a streak of 43 years of defeat, a Navy win against ND is no longer a really big deal. Can they hit for two straight years? Another hook in the rain. I'm taking the dog. ND to win, but not cover. 16-13. Confidence 10.

#11 Satan's Little Helpers (8-2, 5-1) -9.5 @ I-L-L-what's that smell? (5-5, 3-3).

MGoBastard: This one is mental. Illinois shocked and exposed the suckeyes last year in the toilet bowl. Those little turds are now angry – think about going to the crapper after a night of hot wings and Shiner bock. Illinois just got thoroughly beaten last week by Western Michigan. Look for tOSU to continue their pillage of the state of Illinois tOSU 38, Ill 7. Confidence 2 (or 1)

Hemlock Philosopher: I locked OSU last week because they were vastly over matched with NW. They also look to have a huge advantage over the reeling Illini. Despite the past two seasons of close games, I think that OSU bombs the Illini. OSU 38-14. Confidence 2.

#3 Tejas (9-1, 5-1) -13.0 @ Mountain of MANgina (6-4, 3-3).

MGoBastard: After rolling up line covers for the first 7 games of the season, the horns have hit a bit of a bump in the road with tough games against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech and a back door cover by the christians from Waco. Why are christains always coming in the back door? Anyways, I digress. There is no cure for a cover slump like facing the porous defense of Kansas. While KU has proven to hang a few points on folks, they've gone cold when the opposition has a solid D. UT has just that. Texas hangs half a hundo and stays in the MNC race. UT 52 - KU 20. Confidence 1.

Hemlock Philosopher: Kansas == Shitty Defense. Texas == Really good Offense. Ugly. Fast. Texas 69-24. Confidence 3.

Cocky (7-3, 4-3) @ #4 kcUF (8-1, 5-1) -21.0.

MGoBastard: -20 fucking-1!!! holy crap that's a huge line. There really aren't two hotter programs not centered in Lubbock at the current moment. USCe has rolled to 5 straight after a slow start and Tebag has the gators rolling. Really it comes down to this fact - this is the SEC and nobody outside the state of Mississippi (or Tennessee) actually loses by 21 to another conference foe. Look for kcUF to win, but not come close to covering. kcUF 34-SoCoCo Beware 27. Confidence 3.

Hemlock Philosopher: Me thinks the bastard forgot about LSU beating USCe. Oh well, 21 is not enough. Urban Meyer has proven he can be a jerk when it's necessary to embarrass a foe to get BCS style points. With Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma and USC all having one or no losses, kcUF keeps cruising and crushing. 'Duh 49-14. Confidence 1. Lock it.

#17 BYUTT (9-1, 5-1) -5.5 @ Air Farce (8-2, 5-1).

MGoBastard: BYU was the media darling to upset the BCS until TCU threw a wrench in that set-up. Outside that game, they've rolled everyone that they've faced. AF is flying under the radar (good thing, don't want to get shot down) to a solid 8-2 record. Their only conference loss is to undefeated Utah. Look for BYU to win this game, but AF will keep it close. BYU 33-AF 30. Confidence 6.

Hemlock Philosopher: For some reason, unbeknown to be, I like BYUtt in this game. This means I'll probably lose the pick, but what the hell I'm down 7. BYU 35-24. Confidence 11.

#16 UNC (7-2, 3-2) -2.5 @ MD 20/20 (6-3, 3-2).

MGoBastard: The Jeckyl and Hyde ACC strikes again. UNC is hot and MD just got humbled by VT. Granted the later was against VT, in Blacksburg, on Thursday night, so who really knows what that means. UNC is building something quality there in Chapel Hill and will continue to roll. UNC 31-13. Confidence 8.

Hemlock Philosopher: Maryland is 5-0 at home and 3-0 versus top 25 teams. This is another bad weather game, which may neutralize UNCs speed advantage. I like MDs mojo at home to git 'r dun. MD2020 17-16. Confidence 12.

Californication (6-3, 4-2) @ Oregon State (6-3, 5-1) -3.0.

MGoBastard: Who knows anything about OSU outside of getting drubbed by PSU then shocking USC? Well, they're 5-1 in conference and also have a close early season loss to undefeated Utah. Cal has hit a bit of a bump in the road going down to USC. I have to think that these trends will continue and the OSU will have a huge game on the ground. OSU 27 - Cal 20. Confidence 7.

Hemlock Philosopher: Cal actually performed admirably on D against a USC team in the same boat as Florida. But this game is up in Corvallis, where surprisingly, Cal is quite comfortable (having won the last two). I think Cal gets it done in the NW. Cal 24-22. Confidence 9.

Minnesota (7-3, 3-3) @ Wisconsin (5-5, 2-5) -14.0.

MGoBastard: I know that Minnesota's early season success was based upon sheer luck, but Wisconsin has suffered a second epic comeback from a Michigan school. The first one set them back to the tune of 3 more losses, the second will likely do the same. Minnesota gets healthy and not only covers, but wins. Large Rats 31, Larger rats 28. Confidence 5.

Hemlock Philosopher: Minnesota played above its abilities and Wisconsin below. This appears to have shifted. Wisconsin will dismantle Minnesota in Madison. UW 42-14. Confidence 6.

Arizona (6-3, 4-0) @ Oregon (7-3, 5-2) -4.

MGoBastard: There must be something in the water there in Oregon. The teams are rollin'. Arizona has their own destiny in the PAC-10 and come in on a roll, showing life on offense to go with their usual desert swarm D. Autzen is a tough place to win and is even tougher at night. Still, I like UA to cover. UO 23-UA 20. Confdence 10.

Hemlock Philosopher: Arizona has not exactly been bueno on the road. They LOST to NEW MEXICO and STANFORD. Oregon. Arriba los Patos! 27-17. Confidence 4.

Backup College (6-3, 2-3) @ #17 Noles Condendere (7-2, 4-2) -6.5.

MGoBastard: FSU has returned to relevance... in the ACC, whatever that means. BC is fresh off a stymerization of ND with solid D, however there offense did not produce anything noteworthy. Look for FSU to cover in another snooze fest of an ACC game. FSU 17-10. Confidence 13.

Hemlock Philosopher: Yes, totally agreed: Snoozy, boozy and boring. Hopefully we get on the OSU-Colorado side of the ABC-Regional coverage. FSU 24-14. Confidence 5.

#13 Tall Dark and Handsome (8-2, 4-2) -17.0 @ Colonraiders (5-5, 2-4).

MGoBastard: Wow, a 17 pt home dog at night. If this was Thursday I close my eyes and ears and pick CU, but its Saturday. OSU has had the misfortune of playing in the B12 south, getting rolled by both UT and TT. CU has the misfortune of playing OSU this week. OSU Big 54-10. Confidence 4.

Hemlock Philosopher: Colon-raid fell off a cliff with an anvil tied to their waist when they entered B12 play. They've been out scored by 100 versus the three ranked B12 teams they've played. Look for TDH to get back on track defensively and win big. TDH 42-10. Confidence 7.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Pick/ Counter Pick: Week 12 - Thursday Game

Welcome to Miami

It's Techy (6-3, 3-2) @ Cocaines (6-3, 3-2) -5.0.

MGoBastard: Thursday Night game, lock the home team! right? Not so fast this time, this requires some consternation - where's my coffee and the sports page... Miami has been indestructible at home on Thursday night (just ask Texas A&M) and VT brings in a not so good offense (while Miami counters with a young, fast D). However, VT now has a running game in Darren Evans and VT has a defense of its own too. The relatively large line (-5.0) has this bastard a bit nervous., but I'm still going to have to go with the home team, even though they're not the dog. Miami 23- VT 17. Confidence 12

Hemlock Philosopher: Pure lines... The common thought is that Thursday night belongs to the home dogs (6-0 ATS), but in Weekly 13 games, the away dog is also doing quite well at 4-2 ATS. Out and Out, dogs are 10-2 on Thursday nights. The only losses being MD20/20 at VaTech and Clemson against Wake - two ACC games. This being and ACC game gives doubt to my VT lean. But VT has performed mighty well in week night games, so I am going to keep them for the cover and win. VT 27-24. Confidence 9.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Pick/ Counter Pick: Week 11 (the rest)

Well, you can say that the week started out bad for both of us with the 45-14 shellacking that Testicular Tech hung on the Huskies, but there is Hope for the future. Yes we can! (avoid going 5-8).

7:30 PM ET 11/6 ESPN #23 Maryland (6-2, 3-1) @Virginia Tech (5-3, 2-2) -3.5.

Hemlock Philosopher: Mmm, is that the smell of Blacksburg on a Thursday night or is it just roasting chicken coated with herbs de Provance? The Hokies have a tradition of shellacking upstart programs on Thursday nights on ESPN in Blacksburg. Maryland is an upstart (after losing to currently 2-6 Sun Belt conference MTSU) they beat Cal and are 3-1 in the ACC. Both teams are dealing with injuries to key players (MD RB Da'Rel Scott and VT QBs Taylor and Glennon). I look for VT to control the ball and the game. VT 23-17. Confidence 4.

MGoBastard: HP, since when does the acrid aroma of burning furniture remind you of chicken with herbs d'provance? I digress, yet, I'm going with you on the pick. The question is will VT be able to outscore their Fraternities in burnt coaches? VT ugly 16 - 10. Confidence 3.

8:00 PM ET 11/6 CSTV #12 TCU (9-1, 6-0) -2.5 @#8 Utah (9-0, 5-0).

Hemlock Philosopher: Talk about streaks - Thursday night home dogs are 6-0 ATS in W13 games. Last week I messed with the streak and got beat. This week I will go against my instinct and stay with the streak. I think TCU is on a war path since being thrown to the lions at Oklahoma. Utah 22-21. Confidence 13.

MGoBastard: Utah should lose by 2 TDs or more. Yet, its Thursday night and they're at home and that has been the only thing that has mattered. I'm riding this horse until it dies. Utah 17-16. Confidence 12.

12:00 PM ET 11/7 GP Louisville (5-2, 1-2) @Pittsburgh (6-2, 2-1) -6.5

Hemlock Philosopher: Pitt is playing the MD 20/20 role in the Big East. At times they look great - beating ND in triple OT - and at times they look awful - giving up 54 to Rutgers at home. Louisville just lost to !!!Syracuse!!! for the second time in a row. They got gashed by a no-name RB. McCoy and Stephens-Howling are both well known and could explode against a team known for weak run D. Pitt, big, 35-21. Confidence 3.

MGoBastard: okay, its a bit late on Friday, but a night of drinking Victory and watching Rocky week on AMC has me in a winning mood.

Since I can't match my futility for the year, what the hell? Let's pick while I'm drunk, its a tough week and coin flips are great.

Pitt/Lousville. Pitt brings in the mojo after beating ND in 4 OT's. Many called it a "thriller", I call it the most boring 4 overtime game ever witnessed. I was waiting for some one to fail and just hoping ND kept it under 6. Louisville has a flaccid run D, but brings a decent passing offense. Pitt's crew runs wild, but so does UL in the passing game - remember pitt gave up 54 to rutgers! Pitt wins, but doesn't cover Pitt 43-42.

12:00 PM ET 11/7 GP #20 Georgia Tech (7-2, 4-2) @#19 North Carolina (6-2, 2-2) -4.5

Hemlock Philosopher: UNC is mystifying. One week they'll jack up Rutgers or beat Miami at home and another they'll lose to a team from Virginia. Rain is in the forecast, which could muddle a lot of things on offense. GT for the cover, UNC for the win. UNC 24-21. Confidence 5.

MGoBastard: I thought that FSU would pull it off against GT and they almost came back. A late fumble stymied that. UNC is bringing the experience of a great coach and solid team. I don't think that they can solve the triple option as Paul Johnson continues to wake what is a true sleeping Giant. GT 34-27.

12:00 PM ET 11/7 ESPN2 #11 Ohio State (7-2, 4-1) -11 @#24 Northwestern (7-2, 3-2)

Hemlock Philosopher: Ohio State is going to skullfuck NW. Kafka will metamorphose into a roach and get squashed by the Little Animal. OSU 35-3. Lock.

MGoBastard: On paper this is a woodshedding. Many in the W13 are locking tOSU. I hate those fuckers. They'll win, but cover? Yeah, they do that too. tOSU 38-10.

12:00 PM ET 11/7 ESPN Michigan (2-7, 1-4) @Minnesota (7-2, 3-2) -8.

Hemlock Philosopher: I went against the streak last week and picked Michigan to cover the -1.5 @Purdump. We scored 42... But we gave up 48. Threet is likely out. Defense sucks. Loss. Big. Minnesota 42-21. Confidence 2.

MGoBastard: Damn. We're 8 pt dogs to Minny? This is the game that either we pull it together or the wheels fall off the cart en route to 2-10. I have to have hope. The Offense (injured) has shown a little spark but the D is not that bad They have to win something for us, right? Feagin starts and runs wild! Michigan 27-24. PS we've never lost in the metrodump!!! ever! please keep something alive for us RR!

3:30 PM ET 11/7 CBS #1 Alabama (9-0, 5-0) -3.5 @#16 LSU (6-2, 3-2).

Hemlock Philosopher: For some reason I think LSU is going to give Bama fits. Yes they got destroyed by GA and UF, but those were slashing speed teams that got the corner versus LSU's power defense. Alabama is a smash mouth team that will play to LSU's strengths. This is a trenches type game and LSU will look for vengeance against it's former coach. Bama wins, but close. Bama 21-20. Confidence 10.

MGoBastard: LSU's Mojo is pretty much gone. kcUF and UGA proved that they have no D. Roll Tide, Roll. Bama 45-28. I would lock it but...

3:30 PM ET 11/7 ABC-R #3 Penn State (9-0, 5-0) -7.5 @Iowa (5-4, 2-3).

Hemlock Philosopher: Penn State is being overlooked for the MNC game and they are not happy about it. They best way to not get overlooked: Blow the doors off your opponent. Iowa missed lots of opportunities to score in a narrow loss to the Illini last week, so they may not be as bad as the 5-4 record suggests. PSU has the impetus to hang half a hundo on Iowa and I think they will try. PSU 38-24. Confidence 8.

MGoBastard: Iowa is having a "green out" for Shawn Green. Its supposed to snow. Sounds like a white out to me. WIth two weeks rest and the NC game in sight, PSU rolls. PSU 44-6. Lock.

7:00 PM ET 11/7 ESPN-U Cincinnati (6-2, 2-1) @ #25 West Virginia (6-2, 3-0) -8.

Hemlock Philosopher: Cinci is turning into my UConn. I think they caught a disease in Hartford when they lost 40-16. WVa is streaking now and the smell of burning couches is in the air. WVa is looking for an inside track on the Big Easy championship and an exciting match-up with the bouk ACC champion. WVa big: 38-20. Confidence 6.

MGoBastard: Cincy is a tough team with an up and down type year. WVU has been up lately. The late night in morgantown has me thinking that the whiskey will will the home team to victory. WVU 31-20.

8:00 PM ET 11/7 ABC-R #21 California (6-2, 4-1) @#7 USC (7-1, 5-1) -18.5.

Hemlock Philosopher: USC. Boot. Neck. Carroll is another coach unhappy with his teams' position in the BCS. The Trojan D has been crushing with authority. This will not stop. USC 45-7. Confidence 7.

MGoBastard: That line is huge. Cal is decent. They lose, but they're going to cover. USC 35-26.

8:00 PM ET 11/7 ESPN Notre Dame (5-3) @Boston College (5-3, 2-3) -3.5.

Hemlock Philosopher: Outside of Seattle, where victories for visitors are handed out like Halloween candy, ND has played poorly on the road. This is a night game against many of ND Students' "back-up college". Little Irish Brother, if you will. Redheaded step child? Perhaps. I look for ND to go to the air and beat BC close. ND 28-27. Confidence 12.

MGoBastard: I hate religious schools. They both suck - its at Boston at night. BC wins 666-to-pentagram. (that's a cover)

8:00 PM ET 11/7 ABC-R #9 Oklahoma State (8-1, 4-1) @#2 Texas Tech (9-0, 5-0) -3.

Hemlock Philosopher: Another "Game of the Week" in Lubbock. This time people expect the Red Raiders to win. I don't. OSU controls the ball well and narrowly got beat by Texas in Austin. They have proven their meddle. I look for a similar score to the Texas game, but with the visitor on top. Okie State 36-33. Confidence 11.

MGoBastard: The only game we should watch this weak. Great game. Is it a let down game? TT picks up where their vanquished foes left off - the gauntlet of hell. TT Wins this one. Poor OSU, sandwich team. TT will lose next weak to OU. TT 56, OSU 46.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Pick/ Counter Pick: Week 11 (early)

There are a few early games this week, so we'll do this in parts...

Barack Obama (PK) versus John Mccain. Tuesday!

Hemlock Philosopher: I got Barack winning tonight based solely on the fact that if the Red Skins lose their last home game before the election, the incumbent party is in trouble. 17 for 17 - don't mess with a streak. Seeing that the Steelers put the spikes to the 'Skins last night, this is a good sign for Barack.

MGOBastard: Look for Oheo to finally not screw things up. Obama 302-238 is what I called.

8:00 PM ET 11/5/2008 ESPN2 Huskies (5-3, 4-1)@ #17 Balls' Taste (8-0, 4-0) -10.

Hemlock Philosopher: NIU has a surprisingly tough D - having given up less than 10 ppg since opening up the season with back to back losses against Minnesota and WMU. Meanwhile, Testicle Tech has not scored less than 24 while racking up an 8-0 record and aa 17th rank in the BCS. It is likely that BSU will not make the BCS, even if it goes 13-0. NIU has played well in Muncie and I look for them to make this a game - covering the spread but losing. BSU 24-17. Confidence 9.

MGOBastard: The stout Huskey D meets its maker in the prolifically offensive testicles. Look for the truck nutz to score a few but NIU to keep it close. I'm with the philosopher on this one. BSU 26-17.

UPDATE: Obamanos! Arriba! NIU == FAIL!